The annual parliamentary session that began yesterday in China, more inclined than ever to economic tasks, will revolve around confidence in facing the wave. Hints of uncertainty were always abound in the National People's Assembly, even in the glory days. Now that the annoying signs are piling up, it's urgent to find recipes and boost morale.
About 3,000 delegates from across the country are meeting this week in the Great Hall of the People, on the western side of Tiananmen Square, to take the country's pulse and unanimously approve whatever the government orders. This is the ultimate expression of the “consensus democracy” that China demands in the face of cries of paralysis from the West. It will begin with a speech by Premier Li Qiang, who will explain in detail what was accomplished in the past fiscal year, record the results and outline future directions. In this third act of the sermon, punctuated by the simultaneous applause of the audience, strategic shifts will be revealed which, in any case, will be subtle because the surprise is reserved for the plenary sessions of the Communist Party.
Decreased exports
The assembly comes when the world once again announces an impending drama. The economic framework is worrying. The population is aging because young people are ignoring government pleas to reproduce, youth unemployment is rising to the unimaginable, exports have declined for the first time in seven years, foreign investment is finding alternatives in India or Vietnam, and the domestic consumption that was supposed to retire the pattern has not yet begun. Global factories, and the real estate sector has gone from driving growth to destroying it.
It used to account for a third of the national GDP, and now petitions to liquidate developers are reaching the Hong Kong courts, bullion prices in major cities are falling unabated, and millions of homes sold exist only off-plan. The threat of social unrest prompted the government to grant them loans so that they could, at least, complete the associated projects. These are not minor issues, but breakdown can be ruled out. China is likely to set an annual economic growth target of 5%.
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