According to the latest report published by the European Commission on the short-term outlook for agricultural markets in the European UnionFarmers and ranchers face many uncertainties, such as unpredictable extreme weather events, geopolitical conflicts that are squeezing agricultural markets, and economic factors such as interest rates that remain high, and rising labor and input costs, which remain well above pre-war levels. Covid. Despite the recent downward trend for some.
The EU Farmer Price Index has fallen compared to the 2022 level, but this decline has not yet been fully transmitted to food prices for manufacturers and consumers., which can provide greater convenience to consumers and enhance food demand. While the EU food CPI has been stable since March 2023, it has risen on average by 43% compared to 2015. In some EU countries, the rise has been more significant, such as Poland (+65%) or Lithuania (+69 %).
Moisture challenge
On the other hand, weather conditions are generally good for most winter crops and pastures, but humidity can be a challenge for parts of the northwestern EU. Given the unpredictability of extreme weather events and the sudden changes we witnessed last year, current signals should be treated with caution.
For this year, EU cereal production is expected to increase in 2024/25, olive oil production will recover slightly, wine consumption will continue its downward trend, and adverse weather conditions will negatively impact fruit (apples and oranges) and EU milk production. Deliveries are expected to remain relatively stable in 2024. Overall, the livestock sector is witnessing structural changes, mainly driven by changes in consumer preferences.
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