The extreme heat of 2023 makes it the warmest year in the past 100,000 years. Heat resulting from greenhouse gas emissions, which was added in 2023 by the El Niño phenomenon, which generates additional From global warming. Child started in May 2023 and contributed to this Since June, every month has been the warmest on record.
In January of this year, El Niño began to weaken, but even so, February 2024 is also expected to be the warmest February on record.
Expectations are so El Niño will end in April and June And then move on The baby girlthe phenomenon that Adds an extra boost of all-over hydrationwhich can start in June and August.
But even though we are in an El Niño-La Niña transition year,… 2024 could exceed the record high temperatures set in 2023Because El Niño's greatest impact on global temperatures tends to be after its peak, on this occasion in December 2023. That's why 2024 could be the first year that temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of average annual global warming, according to Barcelona Supercomputing Center forecast.
How do El Niño and La Niña work?
It is a phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific region. It's called El Niño because that's what fishermen in Peru and Ecuador called the abnormally warm ocean water just before Christmas. It consists of three components: the El Niño phenomenon; La Niña, which cools the ocean surface; And the Southern Oscillation, which are linked to weather changes. Technically, the whole phenomenon is called El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (Enso).
Each El Nino and La Niña is different, but they all affect the global climate, with increased warming or cooling, drought in some places and severe storms in others.
El Niño can last for a year and a half, La Niña for two to three years, and there can be a neutral period in between. all of the The entire El Niño-ENSO cycle It usually lasts Between 3 and 5 yearsbut can range between 2 and 7 years.
El Niño and La Niña change
Since the 1980s, some of this phenomenon has been observed Stronger boysome Girl for longer And some appear super child, As researcher Glenn Peters explains to X:
These changes make El Niño and La Niña more difficult to predict. According to the British Meteorological Service“The 2023 El Niño appeared earlier than usual and strengthened quickly.”
Another new thing about Niño 2023 is that although 2023 was the warmest year on record, The 2023 El Niño was a normal one, not a super El Niño. The record high temperatures of 2023 were actually driven by global warming, unlike the records in 2015-2016 and 1997-1998 which were Super Nino years.
As for La Niña, it increases its duration. Between 1921 and 1945 they lasted for one year, while from 1998 to 2022 they mostly lasted for 2-3 years. A longer La Niña generates longer wet periods in some areas, with increased risk of flooding, and longer droughts in others.
According to a study published in the journal Nature. A multiyear La Niña will be the result of a previous, more extreme El Niñowhich would have caused the oceans to warm significantly and take a long time to recover.
I Very warm oceans This has been happening since the beginning of 2023.
2024, from intense boy to intense girl?
What's happening in the oceans is what scientists are most concerned about now when it comes to El Niño and La Niña.
The oceans absorb most of the excess heat from the climate system, but they react slowly because they have a lot of inertia. For this reason, since 2023, ocean surface temperatures have been much higher than normal, even though the El Niño of 2023 has already begun to weaken. Global impacts may persist for some time.
Last week, Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures in the region where most major hurricanes form in mid-February reached Warm as it usually is in mid-July.
It's time to prepare
We accounted for calendar years as well as election cycles. Now we also need to incorporate the El Niño-La Niña planetary cycle into our lives. The course is 3-5 years, which can be 2-7 years, which It will increasingly determine social, economic and political organization.
We have many doubts about the El Niño-La Niña cycle. We don't know when it will come, how long it will last, or how severe it will be. We cannot expect them to come for six months, and sometimes only a month.
But we have many certainties about the El Niño-La Niña cycle. We know it probably is We will have El Nino again between 2026 and 2028. We know that El Niño is likely to be more severe than the one that will occur in 2023. We also know that every 10 to 15 years there is a super El Niño.
We must prepare to limit the effects of stronger La Niña and El Niño. Because we know that They will be denser, at least Until we stop emitting greenhouse gases, which, At best, it will be 2070.
The last Super El Nino was in 2015-2016. The 2026-2028 El Niño could be a Super El Niño, because the time has come. Let's put the batteries.
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