September 30, 2022

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Anomalies of the oceans: the first clues to winter?


The heat is not leaving the Mediterranean and another subtropical rebound is expected next week (As discussed in this article). But how is the situation in the rest of the hemisphere? Meteorological autumn began a week ago, and the first effects of the physiological decay are visible in summer outside the Arctic Circle, as temperatures begin to drop dramatically.

For this reason, the polar vortexthe great polar depression that regulates the fate of winter in the northern hemisphere. But what can winter be like in Europe? Well these little clues Currently available does not come from the Arctic, but from the Pacific Ocean.

Let me be clear, what we will write in the next few hours is alone speculation On the current and future state of some features of the Pacific Ocean, which is the largest water body in the world, is able to influence the climatic conditions of the entire globe or in any case of a significant part of it.

no nina I certainly heard in recent weeks about a comeback.Nina‘, but many may still not know what it is.
La Nina, as well as El Nino, is a A natural and periodic climatic phenomenon regarding Pacific surface water temperature.
When we talk about “la nina” we refer to a Net cooling of tropical waters in the central eastern Pacific (as much as the Pacific coasts of South America), while the waters get warmer on the western side, off the coasts of Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. El Nino is the exact opposite of this situation.

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At present, it appearsNina“Its is clearly increasing in severity, as evidenced by temperature anomalies detected in the central Pacific: it is even recorded More than 2°C below averageWhich indicates that we are heading towards “Nina the Strong”. When Nina becomes particularly severe, it can have effects on vast areas of the world, all the way to Europe. From the literature in this case, the Azores anticyclone will likely rise to the north, between the eastern Atlantic and western Europe, with the following polar depressions toward central Europe and the Mediterranean.

This pattern will be reinforced by another important indicator, which is PDO (Pacific Ten-Year Oscillation) which frames the same situation you created Ninabut further north, that is in North Pacific Between Russia and North America. Here there is also a warming of the central-western sector, while in the eastern part (near the west coast) we find much cooler ocean water.

According to this current approach, which in any case must be maintained or even intensified during the fall, we can talk about a Winter is characterized by stable phases and sudden jerks of a very rapid polar nature capable of bringing scattered and not very persistent precipitations.

However, there is another variant regarding high temperatures in the mediterranean sea Which is likely to be above average even between fall and winter. In our latitudes, warmer bodies of water are able to facilitate the formation of or The continuation of hurricanesand for this reason the hypothesis Mostly massive mega hurricanes are between the Atlantic and Europe the South, with the ensuing displacement of the Arctic perturbations to the east (towards the Balkan Strip or Eastern Europe). In this case it will come with winter Average temperatures are or are slightly above average within the Mediterranean.

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Of course, these are just hypotheses and long-term trends on current, reliable data. What is written does not count as a prediction, so we will necessarily have to return to the topic in the coming months.