LondonWith less than 48 hours to go until the UK’s polls open, one unknown seems certain, given the trend in opinion polls, which is consistent with the results of the May 2 municipal elections: Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will win. And having cleared that first box, the second question is how big a victory will be to match the disaster the polls predict for the Conservatives. Sunak insisted on Tuesday that he had not given up. But there is more to his strategy, which is to campaign mainly in areas where there is a majority. Tori Sitting on the bench – he says – he says the vast majority of the Labour Party should be “avoided” – suggests the opposite.
So much so that the country’s foremost demography guru, Professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, in Glasgow, summed it up eloquently: “Lightning is more likely to strike the same place twice, and even slightly more likely, than Rishi Sunak continues as prime minister.” Pioneer He simply responded by saying, “It’s his vision, but I’m continuing to fight for every vote.”
Curtis’s forecast is certainly bad. But it could be worse. Because in some of the projections of votes made by district – there are 650 constituencies at stake – the Conservatives have only 55 MPs, down from the 365 they won in 2019. Yet at this stage, a scenario close to total annihilation, despite this data, is a reality that is hard to imagine.
Following the same demographic model, Professor Curtice himself suggests that, at best, the Conservatives would win only 98 seats. On the other hand, if the voting model is the traditional one, with seats distributed proportionally across the country in relation to the general voting intention, the government would still soften the blow and get 191 MPs, while Labour would get 191. Getting 370, 56 over a majority. The first model is more accurate.
Even some surveys of this first model indicate that Pioneer Sunak will not reinstate his seat in Richmond and Northallerton in Yorkshire (northern England). If confirmed, it would be a historic fall, because nothing has happened yet. Pioneer He never lost it.
Is an earthquake possible with these characteristics? Yorkshire is a region known for its rolling hills and the elegance of its village streets: flat and short, the essence of rural England. But all this hides a state of decline and acute deprivation. Labour has recently seen its support rise in similar areas across the country.
The ministers also threatened
Yet it would be an overstatement to say that Labour has done well in this area. On the contrary, its support has traditionally been thin in these latitudes. Richmondshire County Council has not elected a Labour councillor once this century. There are few party activists, few councillors, and very little organised effort. Could things be different this time? Is there a hidden Labour vote threatening Sunak’s chances of saving the furniture?
In the Blackpool South by-election, held on 2 May, the opposition won a landslide victory, with a close vote. Conservatives To Labour for the 2019 election at 26%. Blackpool South, in the northwest of England, is one of the backyards of Rishi Sunak’s constituency. So, despite the strong history of Conservative support, all options are open.
The threat to Sunak is real, but not the most serious. In the executive, at least 10 or 12 of the 26 ministers could lose their parliamentary record, according to another YouGov poll aired on Sky News, which also uses a region-by-region methodology. In that sample, Labour’s majority would be 194 seats, higher than Tony Blair’s 179 in 1997.
In this context, Thursday’s meeting could represent the worst defeat for the Conservatives since 1906. The economy minister, Jeremy Hunt, is in danger. So is defence, Grant Shapps. Justice, Alex Chalk, and education, Gillian Keegan. And, among others, Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the House of Commons and one of the women who always appears on the list of candidates to replace the prime minister. PioneerBut Conservative rules do not allow the leader to be a non-MP. So, in the event of a pickle, the options for finding a name in the hat will be greatly reduced.
The fate of the Conservatives will largely depend on the success or failure of Nigel Farage’s xenophobic populist Reform Party. In the past few hours, another poll has emerged in the pro-Conservative newspaper Daily Telegraph He points out that the gap between the two main parties has narrowed by four points compared to last week, mainly due to the decline in support among Farage’s ranks, which has eaten into the government’s votes.
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