The scene has spread around the world: G7 leaders gathered in Italy pondering how some paratroopers’ maneuvers will end. They’re all looking in the same direction, and at one point, Joe Biden He turns in the opposite direction and addresses someone with a thumbs-up, but the shot doesn’t reveal who he’s communicating with. The Italian Prime Minister noticed this and went to find him to take his place in the group.
Has the President of the United States lost his mind? Want to congratulate a paratrooper? And it was necessary Georgia Meloni Did you see him? These are valid questions, and it does not matter what the answer is, because what this scene confirms is that in every public appearance, Biden is haunted by doubts About his health condition and the discussion about his age.
Biden has given reasons, in recent months, to put the debate on the table. with Really disturbing episodesJust as he shouted in a room the name of a woman who had recently died, or in one of his speeches in which he lost the thread. He was seen confused in some handshakes or paralyzed while everyone around him was dancing at an event with the Vice President. I Its movements are clearly slower than it was two years agoWhen he reached the presidency.
next to, It was a subject of raw manipulation Or videos that are cut off and without context, as a result of political propaganda, making them appear even more disparaging of the account. The latter, on the anniversary of the Normandy landings, pretended to sit on a chair that did not exist; Yes he was there, but in the video that went viral it looked like he wasn’t.
Biden is 81 years old When he was sworn in three and a half years ago, he became… Oldest president From the history of the United States. This record can be surpassed Donald Trump, 78 years old Just, if he wins the November election.
Trump boasts that he is fitter than ever, appeals to his parents’ long lives, and has offered little cause for debate, even as he confuses Nikki Haley, his GOP primary rival, with Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic speaker of Congress. Their meetings are often a continuous linking of topics for an hour and a half.
The Americans are clear: More than half believe they are both too old to be candidates. In the case of Biden, they consider it 85%, and in the case of Trump, 62%, according to the latest polls. But this is the panoramic picture that citizens will find at the ballot boxes on November 5.
Was there no alternative to Biden?
This question has been floating around for months, but now Democrats don’t even want to ask it out loud anymore; Any sign of doubt about Biden will hurt him Electorally
Doug Sosnick He has a resume advising Democratic politicians that would fill an entire book. More importantly, the six years he spent in the White House Bill Clinton. He adds: “You have to be clear about one thing in order to understand the moment better. For a long time in American politics, everything revolved around Donald Trump. And In the Democratic Party, it’s all about beating Donald Trump“.
He explains that after the midterms, much of the party expected Biden to step down and for someone to be able to offer an alternative. But time passed and Biden did not turn away, until it actually backfired: “Now It’s starting to feel inevitable. “Biden is the candidate, and criticizing him or questioning his ability will not change anything, and on top of that, you can weaken him in the face of Donald Trump’s victory.”
Eileen Kamarkone of the leading experts on the American electoral system, and also a close collaborator with the Democratic Party, sees it a little differently: “Biden is the nominee because the Democratic Party is satisfied with Biden and getting the job done As a president in times of complexity. Those who could dispute his place in the party see him as good, but do not see any problem. Well, maybe they see that he sways a little when he walks. and what? “He has knee and back problems, and that has nothing to do with his ability to serve as president.”
Sosnick draws our attention to the lack of an alternative to Biden at the time: “Democratic elites, for better or worse, preferred to work on nominating Biden, despite his age, rather than expose him to the risk of a primary with real competition.” Constant in American politics: If you subject an incumbent president to a competitive primary, he or she loses the election. It happened to him Gerald Ford When confronted Ronald Reagan In 1976, to Jimmy Carter with Ted Kennedy 1980 or George Bush Sr In 1992, when he found internal competition in Pat Buchanan. “Democrats did not want to challenge this unwritten law.”
Carmack insists on his Democratic optimism and bases it on what happened in the last election: “Since Biden arrived at the White House, all election appointments have favored Democrats; There was no red tide in Congress in the 2022 midterm elections, and offices were reclaimed across the country. The voice of youth, despite everything that is happening, is democratic. Instead, the senior vote is Republican, and Trump, as a candidate, makes no effort to speak to anyone other than his most religious base. “It’s solid, but it has a roof.”
Trump is also an inevitable candidate
For Sosnick, Trump is also the inevitable Republican nominee, but for different reasons. It was not decided by the party elites, but rather with the support of the loyal ranks Anti-scandal: “He has a very solid base, which means that within his party, even people who couldn’t see him clearly ended up giving in. You have to feel very strongly about criticizing Trump without paying the consequences “In the form of mockery or directly from the loss of party support.”
After the guilty verdict against Trump in the New York trial, there were very few Republican voices demanding that the jury’s decision be respected. One of them was the Republican Party’s candidate for Maryland in the Senate, Larry Hogan. Shortly after, the Republican Party co-chair said, Lara TrumpHe said in an interview that Hogan did not deserve the support of the party or the country. Lara Trump is married to one of Trump’s children and has been part of the Republican Party leadership since March.
What future awaits them, the Republican and Democratic parties, after the elections?
It’s hard to know now, and the results will have a big impact. But hypotheses can be advanced.
Republicans are scheduled to meet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the end of July to formally nominate Trump as their candidate. One question about the event that this convention can answer is: If the Republican Party had made the decisiontruly or forcefully convinced, to be the party of Donald Trump, or at least, the party of the Trumpian movement that will survive the former president and that will replace the more classical republicanism.
On the eve of his 78th birthday, Trump visited the Capitol. He has not done so since the attack on January 6, 2021, and he found a party surrendering at his feet, including the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnellWhich made him responsible 4 years ago for the attack on the institution.
Regarding the Democratic Party, Sosnick ventures: “Whatever happens in the election, A long transition period begins for Democrats. They are forced to do this. For many years the party was in the hands of four people in different groups: Marriage to Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Relief is needed. “This phase is over, and new leadership is needed.” He gives us a final take on his mother’s idea, which is all about Trump:
“To the 2020 Democratic Primary, Bernie Sanders He was clearly a winner, but the elites decided to close ranks with Biden because they considered him the best option to beat Trump. But this hurt the game. Indeed, Biden is the first president-elect to come into office without having a solid foundation of his own. The base that carried him to the presidency was not voters who wanted him, but voters who did not want Trump. This has pros and cons for this election: Biden doesn’t have a completely solid base of his own, but he’s the only one who can say Donald Trump won At the ballot box once.
On November 5th we will find out what will happen the second time.
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