Poland goes to vote, and the sovereigns are the first party. But a pro-European front could gain a majority (and rule).

Let the party begin. Only this time the correct address is different from the usual one. When night falls, the lights of the building on Novogrodzka Street, which houses the PiS headquarters, remain off. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the undisputed sole party master in government for eight years and an increasingly anti-European line, may already have sensed that this time it would not be like 2015 and 2019, with toasts in the streets and crowds in the streets. An arena to glorify his name. As he often repeats, quoting Scripture in his own way, candles cannot burn forever. On this first cold Sunday, LPoland went to vote en masse, At 5pm, turnout was 57.54%, a whopping 45.94% in 2019 and 39% in 2015. At that time, the most pro-European areas in the North-West had already exceeded sixty percent. It has been defined as the most important election since 1991, when the country was finally free to choose its representatives after the end of the Soviet Union. The filled ballot boxes confirmed that Poles realize that they stand at an important crossroads. So much so that in the Cesarini region, it was decided to keep the ballot boxes open until ten o’clock in the evening, that is, an hour longer than specified by law.

At 9pm, when the first independent opinion polls come in, the only shouts of joy come from the nearby headquarters of Piataforma Civica, the moderate centre-right party led by Donald Tusk. At the National Ethnographic Museum, where the former president of the European Council has chosen to await the results, its volunteers start running through the rooms, chased in vain by guards. They did not wish for this, as they were the first to know him. In recent days, pessimism has taken over. Instead. The Polish right did not win. The Law Party’s percentage stops at about 36%, which is 7% lower than it was in 2019. It is still the first party, but it sees a desert around it. Even the ultra-nationalists, anti-European and Russophiles of the CNT performed less than expected, as they are a party and not a coalition and will still enter parliament with 6%.

The pro-European front is performing better than any previous expectations. Tusk and his platform received nearly 32%, while his Luika (left) allies crossed the 8% threshold needed to enter parliament. The real surprise is the centrists in the Third Way Party, who two months ago refused to enter into a coalition with Tusk, but said they were ready to ally with him after the elections. If confirmed, 13% of them said no one expected it to happen. Even as National Television, the state megaphone that yesterday gave PiS 48%, begins publishing data in line with other opinion polls, the change of season is taking on real features. In the best case scenario, PiS will struggle to reach the 231 seats needed to remain in power even through an alliance with the CNT.. If Piataforma and Tierza Via, who are already engaged, reach an agreement, they could instead reach 248 votes. At the present time, with all necessary precautions, the only possible majority is the opposition majority. It is no coincidence that the first person to appear in front of the microphones is Tusk himself, and that he speaks openly about victory. “I feel like saying that I am now the happiest man on earth. With these statements, the era of populism ends.”

Kaczynski’s face says more than his words. It’s frustratingThere is no hidden awareness of what could happen. “We are the first party, but we do not know if the government will change with these numbers. Days of great tension lie ahead.” And around him are his ministers and trusted men. No one is smiling. It seems almost impossible for PiS to obtain a majority in splendid isolation, as happened the last two times. Preliminary analyzes identify the women’s vote as the decisive factor in this transformation The unexpected. The law prohibiting abortion in any form may have been a point of no return for Kaczynski. Late promises of change have not had the desired effect. The damage has already been done. At 11 p.m., Tusk’s headquarters transforms into something resembling a nightclub. Today it starts Negotiating and buying and selling new representatives, an art at which the old Kaczynski is a master. It will take days to understand more. And the counting of votes abroad will have a big impact, historically in favor of moderates, who saw a double influx of ballots compared to 2019. But whatever happens, Since yesterday, Poland no longer has a major Eurosceptic parent, and the Visegrad Fortress and the ideological alliance with Hungary led by Orbán appear to be further away.