Putin and Kim Jong-un’s meeting is full of lessons: about the war in Ukraine, about returning to the logic of the darkest years of the Cold War, and about the close links between what is happening in Europe and what could happen in the world. future far East.
In summary, the conclusions can be summarized as follows Three “pills”: That handshake is also a result of Russian inadequacy. It reveals the fragility or illusion of some agreements between East and West during the years of peaceful coexistence. Finally, this matter has worried Japan, especially South Korea. The most pressing aspect of the agreement between the Tsar of Moscow and the communist dictator of Russia. Pyongyang Regarding potential military supplies.
It should be remembered that North KoreaGiven the sanctions regime it is subjected to and the extreme poverty of its economy, it certainly cannot be considered a technological power. He succeeds in performing miracles, despite the limitations he suffers from, in order to threaten the world South KoreaJapan and even the United States with their missiles and building a nuclear arsenal. But it must focus its few resources on those programmes. Other than that, it has a very primitive military industry. In the field of munitions, for example, experts believe that North Korea remained stuck in the technological phase of the 1960s and 1970s, when all of its arsenals came from the Soviet Union.
What does this mean that Russia in 2023 might need to tap into these types of supplies? Confirm it Put it in He arrived unprepared for this protracted war, and had not prepared industrial production plans to withstand a conflict that is now about to last 19 months, and who knows how long it will last. Since there are not very many countries willing to circumvent sanctions even in the area of weapons (Iran Among these, China He does this secretly and very carefully), and Putin cannot be selective about the quality of these weapons. Moreover, it is confirmation that this war is largely being fought in an old-fashioned way: there is a lot of talk about the role of drones, and much of this conflict is still being fought like World War I or World War II, in the trenches and constantly. Exchanging heavy artillery, barrages of bullets and anti-personnel mines. In this sense, the Soviet ammunition of the 1960s and 1970s of artillery and mortars – which north korea It continues to be produced – and is still needed in increasing quantities due to the depletion of Russian arsenals.
This does not mean that Ukraine is immune to these scarcity problems, but Kiev can at least rely on a wider pool of suppliers (even if Western arms industries, especially those that make munitions, have seen their capabilities reduced to a minimum during the years of “peaceful illusion”). Another discovery from the meeting Putin Kim It can be summarized as follows: isolation north korea It was fake. In the years when America and the West wanted to deceive themselves that they were living in a peaceful world, they received reassurances from He flies And Beijing Regarding Russia and China’s compliance with sanctions imposed on the “Red Monarchy” in Pyongyang. In fact, these reassurances had a formal aspect: Russia and China at the time adhered to UN resolutions that condemned North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests and imposed sanctions on it. Suspicions have always existed that the Russians and Chinese actually continued to keep Kim’s dictatorship afloat through various types of under-the-table aid. Now we can see how quickly we get rid of the mask.
Recently, the official delegations of the governments of Moscow and Beijing celebrated with Kim the anniversary of their “joint victory over America” in the North Korean war. Korea 1950-53. mostly Xi Jinping He accuses Washington of reviving the mentality and tone of the Cold War, but he is no different. The latest revelations about Putin and Kim’s meeting relate to the possibility that the war in Ukraine could “spill over” into some kind of conflict on the other side of the Eurasian bloc. The extent to which Xi Jinping is monitoring the Ukraine conflict to draw lessons from it has often been debatedPossible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Less evident in the West, but very present in thoughts of Tokyo and SeoulThere is a possibility that Kim Jong Un may want to make his contribution to the East-West clash, entering into a “window of opportunity” with his aggression against South Korea, or even expanding it against Japan, two countries that also host the United States. Military bases. It must be remembered that the inter-Korean war never officially ended since the signing of an armistice in 1953, not a peace treaty. Moreover – more troubling for those not engaged in historical studies – even Russia and Japan never signed a formal peace treaty at the end of World War II. In any case, the truth is that the red dictator Now Kim is being rehabilitated in all respects by the two superpowers, Russia and ChinaIt could encourage him to undertake more aggressive initiatives than the missile launches and nuclear tests to which we are accustomed. The recent rapprochement between Japan and South Korea, endorsed by the Camp David summit with Joe Biden, was also a result of this ultimatum.
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