October 1, 2022

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Russia-US, (barbed wire) dialogue. Road map of Savino

Today’s tensions in Eastern Europe do not testify to Russia’s commitment to the resumption of global expansion policy, but to the need for Putin to reach an agreement with the US and NATO. Roadmap for the agreement in the analysis of Giovanni Savino, a professor at the Russian Presidential Academy

The last months of 2021 were characterized by news of the forthcoming Russian intervention in Ukraine, especially with the alarming tones of the American and European press. Video conference between Joe Biden e Vladimir Putin At the time of writing, last December 7, relations between the United States and Russia had advanced one step, but it did not appear to have eased tensions in Eastern Europe.

Tension, artificial or not, should not be underestimated: threats of intervention and the use of force and weapons are part of the diplomatic game, and the problem is how much you manage not to succumb to your stress. The rhetoric of conflict. In this context, the draft agreements sent by the Russian Foreign Ministry to Washington and NATO reflect important documents for understanding what Moscow wants from the US-Atlantic alliance and what Vladimir Putin has ambitions for the immediate future.

The conditions and points proposed by the Kremlin can be called the maximum program of Russian foreign policy, and would mean recognizing the existence of continuous buffer zones in the regions considered strategic by Moscow. Looking at the missiles capable of reaching the capital in a few minutes, the fear of pressure on the country’s borders is real among Russian leaders and is a precursor to the black and white dot of determination not to include Ukraine in NATO. This fear.

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Moreover, for Putin, the solution to the Ukrainian problem is seen as part of his historic task of restoring Russian greatness to the world, and it is important for internal balance, because reaching the Donbass Agreement is a fundamental condition for the Russians. President in the game. To switch to power.

The Kremlin considers Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia to be essential for Russian security. This is not new if one examines from a historical perspective the strategy of imperialism first and then Soviet from the eighteenth century. However, the difference that emerges from the drafts sent last December is the situation in the countries bordering Russia: the demand for annexations or the recognition of one’s own sphere of influence, in different ways, took place in 1815. In 1877-78 and 1945, but “finlandisation” was used as a solution to tensions.

Putin’s implicit acknowledgment of Russia’s attempt to build a network of friendly relations, alliances and alliances with its neighbors is a sign that the Tsarist and later the Soviet Union have lost ground. Attempts to restart Moscow’s role as a major global power, with interventions in Syria and Central Africa, as well as attempts to remain on remote chessboards such as Latin America, collide with the country’s economic and structural weakness. In the era, even an ideological appeal could not compensate for them.

Even in Belarus, the Kremlin is struggling to impose its own path as a hostage to the president’s ingenuity. Lukashenko In the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow finds at least temporary solutions to the fears and conflicts that it will have to face new rivals and lose potential control over what is happening on its borders. That is, in a region considered to be Turkey-Russian.

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Russia has no slaves in Central Asia, where various specific gravitational states seek to balance between Moscow, Beijing and Washington, and play a key role in the region with Kazakhstan, but are struggling with gradual upward change. Great talent from Narsultan Nazarbayev.

Today’s tensions do not testify to Russia’s commitment to a major renaissance of global expansionist policy, but to a new phase of relations with the United States and NATO that Putin must reach an agreement on. Leading orators of Moscow, Angela Merkel, Leaves the scene.

The purpose of the direct confrontation with Washington will lead to further reflections on the role of the EU and how often the existence of the polyphony of interests represented by the different relations of member states with Russia changes. A cacophony capable of damaging European prestige and positions worldwide.