It's difficult to try to give an idea of how the world is going right now and get a sense of how it might go. But even if it is simplified I take the risk.
Between 1900 and 1914, the hierarchy of military power was as follows: Europe, the United States, Russia, and China. Europe was divided, with monarchies vying for Africa, and fortunately the British Empire was dominant, with the jewels of India, Canada and Australia – I say fortunately because they were ruled by a democracy, just like France had overthrown the monarchs in 1789. -. Secondly, the isolated United States of America, which grew almost without realizing it due to vast natural resources, and the great migration of poor Europeans, which ended the indigenous population and swallowed up in its expansion the northern half of a weak Mexico. Third, Russia, the isolated, almost communist monarchy, and China, which was not taken into account, and which is partly dominated by Europe and Japan. World War I, a battle between Europeans, turned everything upside down, and at the end of World War II, which many consider a continuation of the poorly closed First War, the United States had already been the leading power for a long time. Russia moved into second place, and in third place, Europe, which had been trying to integrate itself with difficulty, was slowly re-emerging. The standoff between the United States and Russia, the USSR of several subjugated nations, ended in the 1990s, with the fall of the Berlin Wall the previous year and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The United States was a pioneer and leader in a new destructive technology, the atomic bomb. Fortunately for them and the world, Hitler did not arrive in time and his scientists crossed the Atlantic. Russia was pursuing them, but in the background. In 1969, the United States of America was the first to set foot on the moon. The group of old and worn-out communist leaders, the most effective system, which was still numerous, went bankrupt and did not allow the youth to rise up. New Russia lost territory, but collected all the scattered nuclear weapons. Very important, this. And also the fact that in the last days of Yeltsin's drunken rule and the debauchery of the new economy, theft of resources, murders were the order of the day on the streets of Moscow, the most willing and unscrupulous, young men from the former KGB. Those who seized power included Vladimir Putin, a spy who, in order to survive, became a taxi driver. In 1990 we can say that the ranking of world powers was: the United States of America, Europe, China and Russia. China was beginning to awaken from the nightmare of Mao's communist dictatorship, thanks to the potential of its talented and hardworking citizens, absorbing the technology sent to them by the West, fulfilling the capitalist logic of seeking immediate gain and not thinking about the long term. . Hong Kong was regained in 1999.
And in just 30 years, from 1990 to today, and because history is accelerating with technological acceleration, I think the classification is the USA, China, Russia and Europe. We always unfairly exclude other countries such as Japan, Korea, Brazil, Iran, India, etc. And so are the big business corporations that actually dominate the democracies, but not China and Russia.
Today, there is a struggle for first place between the United States and China, as Europe does not have much importance at the present time, and where Russia wants to continue strengthening third place at the expense of Europe, and it knows that it will never be able to aspire to first place. two. In this conflict, China is betting on continuing to separate Europe and NATO from the United States in order to weaken them and side with Putin or allow him to do so. Putin is without any scruples or restraint, as shown by the invading countries, although he could be seen as reacting to the mistakes of bringing NATO closer to its borders. He eliminates his enemies at home and abroad, those who can shadow him. He has witnessed the weaknesses of the United States and European democracies at various G20 meetings, where he was invited thanks to the oil and gas capacity at his disposal. Understanding how the counterweight of business and media interests influences increasingly corrupt and lobbyist democracies is something dictators should not have to endure. How could a former German Chancellor appoint Schroeder? As has happened more recently since Thatcher, England has changed prime ministers almost every year. In London, he was able to eliminate his enemies with impunity. The United States has ceased to have great leaders, such as Roosevelt and Kennedy, and now it is pathetic to watch Trump and Biden. He analyzes them and knows that the threat of using nuclear force alone is sufficient at the present time. It remains to be seen whether he wants to stop with part of Ukraine, or if he wants all of it and will continue with the Baltics, and perhaps Poland, and go figure out where he will slow down depending on the delayed reaction to an increasing policy. Europe is alone because we know it is growing and, ironically, NATO is beginning to disintegrate due to the main core of the United States.
History teaches us all, including Putin, that tyrants, those who impose terror, either die in bed of old age like Stalin, Mao or Franco, or after losing wars they resist until the end at the cost of destroying their countries, like Hitler, Saddam or Mussolini. Putin must die in bed – he can no longer travel to the West – because his final defensive response will be the end of civilization, or he must be shunned by those below, but never by a group of benign spirits, or by the envious and disaffected. They are likely to be more stubborn, because history also shows that it is not precisely the good people who rise to power, but rather the unscrupulous and ambitious.
We must hope that the mutual deterrence of assured destruction of nuclear weapons does not hold true, but the evil of the few may outweigh the good of the great majority. Technology can save us or sink us. We'll just have to see what can be done in the sky with thousands of drones. Installations of dragons move us with stunning shapes and changes of light that would have been unimaginable three years ago. We must abandon oil as a source of energy instead of the sun as a first step in the right direction, and taking advantage of these technologies for good can be another, and learn the hardest thing in the world, that when a dictator starts, before he becomes strong, one must try to remove him or control him. . But in Europe we are still leaders in social welfare, better distribution of wealth, health care, and in some places justice. At the same time, this struggle for hegemony at the highest levels, and the so-called small conflicts such as Gaza, former Iraq, Yugoslavia and others, lead to destruction, death and suffering. A bad piece on the loom has to choose between guns or butter.
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