February 5, 2023

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Gas prices are still falling (77€/MWh) but the benefits of the bills will only arrive in 2023

The price of gas in the European market continues to fall. Unusually mild temperatures across the Old Continent and plentiful supplies of Liquefied Gas (LNG) are driving prices lower with one MWh now trading in Amsterdam, Europe’s reference market, at €77 per MWh, down 3%. And less than before – the warlike values ​​\u200b\u200bof Ukraine. New Year’s Day is expected to be one of the hottest days on record For this period and European storage facilities They stay well stored. European fill rate is 83%, Italy is in line with this value, Germany remains at 88%. The three Italian regasification terminals (where ships carrying liquefied gas on land) are now operating at 90% of their capacity, against an average of 60% in past years.

Basically This winter should pass without any problems If not for the pockets of businesses and families grappling with it Significant increase in bills. If low prices persist for a certain period of time, there will also be benefits in the invoice. Market price quotations are sent to the end consumers at a certain interval. Indeed, December’s Italian bills are awaiting 20% increase compared to last year. Arrera (Italian Energy Authority) will reveal Between December 29th and 31st, the light varies (After publishing the Budget Law in the Official Gazette which will confirm the resources needed to eliminate the system fees) And on January 3 gas. Against the exorbitant bills, the government will commit 21 billion until March and then around 90 euros in June.

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck Thought gas prices It will only decrease at the end of 2023. “When will prices go down? I hope that by the end of 2023 the situation has already improved, although not yet at the level of 2021. Keep up with the price hikedpa replied. “Prices have been dropping since September and surprisingly since then We are in the middle of winterHe confirmed that the price of gas had fallen from 130 euros per kilowatt-hour before Christmas to less than 100 euros. “Anyway, a very high price for sure, there’s no doubt about that,” he concluded.

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At the end of August, bids in Amsterdam reach their peak 339 euros per MWh. before the Russian invasion of Ukraine (from which about 40% of the gas consumed in Europe came) Prices fluctuated around 70 euros. After hostilities started, they quickly jumped above 200€ and then back to around 100€ in March. Then it goes down In the euro area 80 in June. But in the summer months, a rush begins to fill the void reserves for the winter months Thus, demand rises as the price rises. At the end of July, 200 euros were revised, in August it exceeded 300. Moscow tightened the taps and significantly reduced supplies to Germany and other EU countries, bidding subsidies. In September with good stocking levels and access to Europe Additional loads of LNG Coming mostly from the US and Qatar, prices return to around 200€ and then halve to 100€ at the beginning of October. November ends with gas at about 150 euros per MWh, but in December prices start to fall again.

On December 19, the European Union countries reached an agreement to introduce a cap on the price to pay for gas. The minimum is set at €180 and only triggers if other conditions are met (price has been above the minimum for at least 3 days, big difference with the LNG price) etc. The declines in recent weeks do not appear to be attributable to This agreement has been assessed with some skepticism by experts.

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