Four things that won't happen in 2024

Four things that won't happen in 2024

Fair warning: This article is a forward-looking analysis, not a future prediction (we won't go there). It also doesn't want to be a series of ChatGPT-based clichés, which we unfortunately find in more places than is appropriate for decent journalism.

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1. It is unlikely The current trend is to transform classical liberal democracy into products built on authoritarianism smoothPopulism, guided by what social media says and extremist rhetoric that then becomes impossible to implement, has suddenly begun to decline this year. If the starting point is not wrong, there will be no ideological change, but a change in mentality. Ephemeral fashions and ideologies Ready to wear They last a little longer, but the mindsets tend to be generational and underground. This new emerging mentality is vague and ill-defined, but it has created a hole in poor middle classes around the world. There is reasonable doubt about the true potential of the welfare state. The old middle class as we knew it no longer existed, and it was very strange that it did not have an electoral translation. By pure coincidence, in 2024, there will be general elections in more than half of the world's countries, including the United States. Also important are those in India, which is currently the most populous country on Earth. We will see what happens. In any case, the emerging global mentality is what it is now, and it bears little resemblance to that which manifested itself in the 1960s, for example. Rather, it is the opposite.

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2. Obviously the E.U The year 2024 will not get out of control, but rather will seem to strengthen, taking into account the significant expansion of the Schengen Area towards the east, affecting Bulgaria and Romania. However, the new mentality – which is not an ideology – floating in the environment views the Union as a mixture of bureaucracy sponsored by second-rate politicians that has already paid off in their countries, and political correctness imposed by subsidies and ridiculous policies. Decisions based on bicycle theory (if you don't pedal, you'll fall). What will happen, for example, when And huge direct subsidies for renewable energies Does it conflict with other needs that also require direct assistance? The war in Ukraine has shown how important the presence of gas and oil is in Europe. Will all these problems be solved only through a “freeze” regarding nuclear energy, for example? (Which is a euphemism for saying that we can't do without it, even partially.) This is just one point among others. The French solved this problem quickly – energy in France has gone nuclear and will remain nuclear – and the rest of us pretend not to notice. Euroscepticism, which has been expressed with varying degrees of disapproval, already has an important presence, and not a symbolic presence as was the case until recently, in the European Parliament. It is motivated by contradictions such as the ones we have just uncovered.

3. Connect the issue As for our affairs – I mean the affairs of the Catalans – it seems clear that the Union's position on the national aspirations of Catalonia will not change. Quite the opposite. Given the direct rejection of the formalization of the Catalan language by the European Parliament, and not only by Spain, the matter will worsen in the opposite direction. In 2017, not a single country in the Union, not a single country, showed the slightest interest in Catalonia's political independence. This means that the entire strategy of “internationalization of the conflict” only served to highlight the cause of the conflict. But it turns out that no one wants conflicts, neither here nor anywhere. This failure should lead to a radical rethink of the long-term independence strategy – what is needed is the localization of the conflict – but this will not happen because some of the leaders of this movement do not live in 2024, but in 2017.

4. Regarding technology, We all know – but are ashamed to admit it – that our relationship with screens, and more specifically with mobile phones, is anomalous. And in the case of young people who spend six to eight hours a day on their phones, this is more than just an anomaly: it is catastrophic. In 2024 everything will remain the same. If they looked at what our elected representatives are doing in plenary sessions, they would see that this is a losing battle. We are facing a very serious problem, but we prefer to put it in a customary context, as if it were just an anecdote. But it's not a story. The obligation to carry a mobile phone attached to the body as if it were an existing prosthetic limb, In reality, In China. We are not missing much here

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Happy New Year and all that.

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