A government official, completely anonymous, explains what the abolition of interest, penalties, and premium on all fines and tax debts has been since the beginning of the century: “Trafting.” It remains to be seen if it is less than three nautical miles from the coast. This is banned in the European Union because it eliminates animal fish breeding, just as amnesties undermine the tendency of Italians to take seriously the demands coming from the tax authorities. But in a metaphor, perhaps proximity is proximity to the rock, that is, the obligation to take urgent action in order to collect a little state revenue, damned, but immediately.
This is not the case: the economic and fiscal document (Def) that will be approved next week must show that the decline in the deficit continues according to plan.To 4.5% of GDP this year and no more than 3.7% next. Perhaps the most notable success of Giorgia Meloni’s government was the fact that the spread between the German and Italian ten-year bunds actually fell while the European Central Bank raised interest rates as quickly as they had not done in its history. International investors are convinced that Italy will not attempt financial adventures and are acting accordingly.
So no, “trawling” is not the result of urgency. This thousandth pardon – not exclusive to the centre-right, after the wanted files were “cancelled” by Matteo Renzi in 2016 – This is not a necessary action. Rather, it is seen in government, those who participate in it explain, as a duty because it was promised to voters last summer with the euphemism “fiscal peace”. As always seen by the Government, it would also be a means of freeing the Revenue Agency from an enormous amount of tax appropriations earmarked for depreciation and remaining unpaid: it does not matter that an amnesty can always beget new amnesties, precisely because taxpayers can always feel encouraged by tax treason.
However, the fiscal picture is not said to be entirely cloudless. Growth is steady and disability too. However, the unloading of housing allowance costs 2020-2022 will slow down the debt decline significantly compared to what was announced in recent months by this government and the previous government. In the deficit tables, it could show a debt decline of just 0.7% or 0.8% of GDP per year in 2023 and 2024. Less than, for example, Germany requires the most indebted countries in the new stabilization agreement.
Negotiations with Brussels will therefore be delicate, with another aspect to be taken into account: budget projections on debt do not yet account for the impact of new loans. (possibly between 1% and 2% of GDP) that Italy would like to ask Brussels for RePowerEU measures on energy. Thus, the goal of debt reduction is still on edge. The growth measures will definitely help with an upcoming bill that will facilitate access to the capital market for small and medium enterprises. Designed, this, in communication with the government of Mario Draghi.
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