August 18, 2022

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Extreme heat coming to the UK, especially England (London) and Wales, a risk of 40°C? « 3B Weather

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Extreme heat expected over the UK

The great African heat returns to Europe with arrogance In this record summer with a new heat wave. Maximum temperatures were recorded mainly in southwestern Europe With peaks of +47 ° C in Portugal. But possible record temperatures are expected over the UK When the very hot air at high altitude, carried by the “Portuguese” low pressure, rises towards the northeast after it affected Spain, Portugal and France. According to numerical models, temperatures are expected to be unusual in the UK with peaks between 36 and 38 degrees Celsius and some peaks reaching 40 degrees Celsius between Monday and Tuesday.. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe warning about bad weather Due to the arrival of extreme heat in England and Wales. The Health Security Agency has also issued a Level 3 Health Alert from Saturday to Tuesday In the UK, it specifically targets those working in the health and social care sector, and advises them to pay attention to vulnerable people. But can you really get to 40 degrees Celsius?

Suppose the probability exists but is low at the moment. There is a lot of uncertainty. Some prediction models show values ​​even close to 40°C Around London but generally east of the capital. The GFS model, with a warmer base ‘bias’ during peak periods, appears to be the most extreme. Ecmwf, although it is also very hot, does not show such high values ​​and the average forecast shows the values ​​35-36Celsius Between Tuesday and Wednesday. You’ll also feel hot at night. More updates soon

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Average outlook for London according to Ecmwf
Average outlook for London according to Ecmwf

The numerical model shows that the predicted temperatures are nonetheless extreme in the climatic domain because the expected value exceeds the climatology of the same model.

Expected temperatures in London exceed Ecmwf's highest statistical distribution
Expected temperatures in London exceed Ecmwf’s highest statistical distribution

The highest officially recorded temperature in the UK so far is +38.7°C in Cambridge in July 2019, followed by +38.5°C at Faversham in August 2003 and +37.8°C at London Airport in July 2020. 40°C, or rather, was unimaginable until 2003. When 37°C was recorded as a limit Maximum ; Then the level of attention was raised with the increased possibility of this happening As explained in this work

If the temperature goes above 40°C or not, this could be one of the hottest heat waves in the UK So much so that many records can be broken all the time In an area definitely not used for high temperatures As there is no air conditioning in most homes.


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