Everyone is waiting for US data today: what could happen

The floodlights are on United States of America And a report onworks Today: What messages are about to hit the market?

The data is eagerly awaited and important for understanding how far the world’s largest economy is feeling the effects of aggressive rate policy in the region feed it. And above all, trying to guess the next moves of US Central Bankwhile traders and analysts begin to bet on a break in the rising cost of money.

Banking turmoil and some hints of falling inflation, as well as indications that the US is beginning to slow down, likely make the Fed less hawkish. the Unemployment rate It is expected at 2.30pm in Italy and will provide a starting point.

With Wall Street and European (including Italian) stock exchanges closed for Good Friday on Easter Monday, the focus is on the economic calendar.

US in the Spotlight: What Will the Employment Data Reveal?

According to some considerations in a Reuters analysis, the US economy may have continued to produce jobs at a brisk pace in March, even if job market loses its luster The interest rate increases By the Federal Reserve discourages demand.

Today’s jobs report, which is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6% and moderate Salary increases Last month, US central bank officials will be scrutinized as they consider whether to halt the fastest cycle of rate hikes since 1980.

As with the latest economic data, it would be too early for that financial market pressuressparked by the collapse of two US regional banks in March, appeared in the jobs report.

“We continue to see numbers that are still very strong.”said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo. We’re still dealing with massive inflation. The Fed is likely to hike again in May, but we expect this to be the last hike of this cycle.”.

The report will also be revealed today non-farm jobs, which should show hiring slowing to 230,000 jobs, was still strong in March. With investors aggressively priced in rate cuts this year, a “very hot” payroll number should dampen those expectations, while a “very cold” report should add to concerns about a hard landing.