The first plate is on the scale. BBVA expects the Spanish economy to grow by 2.1% in 2024, an increase of 0.6% from previous expectations. The Spanish Chamber of Commerce also revised it upwards to 2%; CaixaBank estimates 1.9%. This is the consensus figure among major analysts according to information compiled by Funcas. There will be more job creation and inflation will fall. The expected decline in interest rates in the second quarter will be one of the levers that will help increase consumption and investment. The recovery of the German economy will be the second lever. Third, new records for tourist arrivals. This sector will continue to represent three-quarters of economic growth. At an event organized by Prensa Ibérica with some major Spanish hoteliers this week in Madrid, the feeling of optimism was so great that it was astonishing. National and international bookings for the summer exceed all expectations. From Inditex, the most valuable Spanish company on the stock market, to Mercadona, the largest of the unlisted family companies, the feeling that 2024 will once again be a great economic year is one that no one remembers from before the pandemic. It's “have fun while we can”.
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The second panel of the scale. The level of debate in the House of Representatives continues to decline. Spanish politics continues to sink under all the mud. The inability to take joint action to repudiate the September 11 terrorist attacks indicates the level of stupidity we have reached. We live in constant expansion. The decision of the state president, Pere Aragonés, to call early elections in Catalonia adds more turmoil to the political world. Tactics more than strategy. April 21, Basque elections that will offer the PSOE the possibility of supporting Bildo or, as is the bet, the PNP; May 12, Catalan elections that will measure the impact of the amnesty at the ballot box; At the beginning of next June, the European ones, which may change the tone of the European Union Parliament. And see if the Generals will be repeated at the end of the year. Pedro Sanchez has already decided to extend the budgets from 2023 to this year. And those for 2025? With what supports?
Can a country function without updated budgets? Yes, it has been shown that it can survive with a government in place. But not constantly. There will come a time when you have to separate the guns from the butter, and the times suggest that in the coming years there will be more of the former than the latter. Europe still represents a new phase of budgetary priorities that governments like Spain's – whatever their color – must confront. It would be best to do this through great consensus. An impossible goal today and the economy is on a good track. But the stalemate does not last forever. After extra time, there are often penalties.
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