In Russia Winter is the most fierce enemy For any army, this has been the case since time immemorial, as the failed invasions of Napoleon and Hitler clearly demonstrated. Without leading to pro-Russian propaganda, we have been free to include Ukraine in the historical category of so-called “Russia,” as “Little Russia” has been called for centuries. Nothing ideological, just purely academic.
However, with the approaching cold season, which arrives in Ukraine earlier than here, The armies are rushing to launch the latest attacks And then freeze the situation until spring in a beneficial position. In late autumn, which brought mud and frost to Eastern Europe, important clashes occur. However, both Moscow and Kiev have to deal with this problem Troops and public opinion are tiredEven if Russia could count on much larger numbers of resources and men. Ukraine needs to make a tremendous effort not to be abandonedTaking into account also the growing intolerance on the part of the parties of the Western Front regarding continued military support for Kiev. This is the main reason Zelensky It could be pushed to a historic decision: declaring full mobilization.
Is Ukraine losing the war against Russia? We talked about that here.
The war in Ukraine: where we stand
Let’s start with the situation on the floor. Almost two years after the Russian invasion. The front line did not move much. There is nothing new on the Eastern Front, as Remarque would have written if he had lived in 2023. A revelation that reveals a dire situation, because it means that the sacrifices of tens of thousands of men have achieved no progress in the war. We killed ourselves over a few kilometers of land, entangled Artillery and trench warfare And bombing civilian targets.
However, Ukraine managed to regain the territories occupied by the Russians. after Kharkiv And IsiumA year ago, on November 11, 2022, Ukrainian forces entered the area Kherson It regained control of the area west of the Dnieper River. But since then, the dividing line between the two sides has been paralyzed, despite further violent attacks by both sides. It was a tragic example of this BakhmutIt turned into a pile of rubble after months of fighting. Russia, eager to achieve victory at home, invested huge human and military resources, first to seize the city and then to resist the heavy Ukrainian counterattack. The latter, having crashed into the defensive shield of Moscow (at the cost of heavy losses), directed the advance towards Robottain. The road to the city has now been determined “death path” (e.g. Bolivian homophone). He completes the picture and closes the front line AvdiivkaIt is another great Russian goal that revealed another war impasse. However, if you want to read the situation from another perspective, you can also say that Moscow now controls 500 square kilometers more than it did at the beginning of the year.
It has rain, mud and cold The map of the Ukrainian war has taken shapecarving out the front line in the southeast of the country along the four points (from northeast to southwest) of the Bakhmut-Avdiyevka-Robotyn-Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnieper River. The target of both is Crimea: The Ukrainians want it back, and the Russians want to keep it. The Black Sea peninsula will be the real balance of power in the conflict.
We have explained here why Ukraine wants to end the war by March.
Is Ukraine preparing for general mobilization?
Given the ineffectiveness of the diplomatic and negotiating path towards peace, Ukraine and Russia are betting everything on military outcomes. While the second brought more men and more vehicles to the battlefield and had Industrial strength (With the exception of major partners like China and Iran) that can support the war effort until the bitter end, the invaded country can do nothing but knock on its door. United States and European Union For supplies, weapons, vehicles and training. Russia can close itself in its strongholds (Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea) and resistance, without exaggerating the occupation of other regions, but rather thinking about defending the territories it already controls. The strategy It is: letting the Ukrainian wave collide with the Russian rocks, in a war that favors the defenders.
After a year and a half of military aid, public opinion in the West and Ukraine certainly seems more tired. The country’s media, in particular, seems to insist with increasing conviction that there are no alternatives to comprehensive mobilization. A member of the Third Brigade stormed Azov battalionOne of the heroic symbols of the Ukrainian resistance even declared this “It’s time to finally start sending 18-year-olds to the front.”. During official meetings, the same representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had spoken about the inadmissibility of protecting conscription evaders and about the possibility of conscripting “all women” as well (there are currently 41,000 conscripted female soldiers, of whom at least 5,000 are directly involved in combat). Is Zelensky’s government really prepared to call on all adult Ukrainians to fight against Russia, risking igniting a social bomb?
What will happen now?
According to many analysts, if Ukraine wants to win this war on the playing field, it seems to have no other choice. The individual lines of defense of the Russians were broken at the cost of heavy losses, but so far There was no real breakthrough from Kiev. With an additional sword of Damocles representing him Russian air superiority. According to Austrian Army Colonel and military expert Markus Reisner, Ukraine does not receive sufficient means from the West to counter air attacks, which are increasingly targeting critical infrastructure, which increases pressure on the population. Ukrainian forces are also losing their best soldiersi, while Russia was easily able to renew its lines (It forms a terrifying alliance). Not to mention the new drones developed by Moscow, i.e. drones neighborsproved to be extremely deadly and frightening, as they were difficult to detect, while I Lancet They have increased firepower. In fact, Kremlin documents indicate that defense spending will rise to about 30% of the state budget in 2024. This is It is a ridiculous amount: 10.8 trillion rubles, equivalent to approximately $112 billion And 6% of GDP (+68% compared to 2023).
Ukraine for that Two possible ways to turn the tide of war: Equip yourself with better weapons in huge quantities or mobilize more troops. Time after time we return to full mobilization, which increasingly looks like a natural consequence of the largely extreme measures taken by the defense forces in Kiev. In recent months the General Staff has actually The mobilization was expanded to include categories of citizens previously exempt Like the “Partially disabled”. But Ukraine, like Russia, faces a serious problem corruption This is something that Zelensky’s government tried to solve with a strong fist. However, recruiters and military officials continued to receive bribes to turn a blind eye and remove names from army records. We need a complete change in direction. We’ll see if it arrives.
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