we are facing Economic scenario ‘complex, somewhat bleak, stressful’, says Confindustria CEO Francesca Mariotti, presenting the fall economic forecasts for the Confindustria Study Center. “We are on the cusp of forming a new government that will have to deal with a real national emergency. This is a national emergency, it no longer just concerns businesses and industry, it affects everyone,” he warns: “Survey interventions will not be enough and will not be as much as possible: we have Doubt about timing: How long will it last? Certainly not a little. We cannot afford to bleed public resources.”
Confindustria estimates: 2023 will be zero growth – “Energy shock undermines growth prospects,” warns Confindustria think tank which sees GDP growth for 2022 at 3.4% but zero growth in 2023: “Italy falls into recession” and “record inflation.” Italian GDP “after a positive dynamic in the first half of 2022 is subject to a downward adjustment between the end of the year and the beginning of 2023, and then slowly recovers. Growth in 2022 (+ 3.4%) has already been fully achieved and is much higher than what was expected before Six months. But for 2023, “in the analysis of via dell’Astronomia economists there is a strong downward revision compared to the April scenario (-1.6 points) leading to a recession in average damage.”
When mapped with the Fall Economic Outlook, the study center led by Alessandro Fontana, among several visionaries in a broad scenario, calculated the increase in business costs associated with the energy price shock at 110 billion, with the incidence rising to 9.8% of total costs. Unsustainable levels.
In terms of employment dynamics, it is expected that “after a setback in the summer, it will turn negative between autumn and winter” while “a recovery in the labor market is expected next year”, it will return to growth but “only in the second half of 2023”.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to an average of 8.1% in 2022 and to 8.7% in 2023. Inflation is now at “record” levels in the CsC’s 2022 forecast “on average, and will stabilize at +7.5% (from + 1.9%. in 2021) “while” in 2023, it is expected to decline, but still high, at +4.5% on average.”
It is estimated that Italian companies’ energy costs will increase by $110 billion Euros on average in 2022, for the overall economy, compared to pre-pandemic values ”, estimates the Confindustria Studies Center.” The average energy costs on total increased from 4.6% to 9.8%, unsustainable levels, which corresponds, despite the disproportionate rise in sales prices by sector, to a profound decline in business margins,” warned economists via dell’Astronomia. The price of gas slows growth but “if a ceiling of €100 could be imposed on the price, GDP would gain 1.6% in the biennium”.
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