2024 is full of unknowns

[Joan Marcet, Professor de Dret Constitucional]

When these dates arrive, much of political and media analysis is devoted to assessing what happened during the year that is ending and, in some cases, to making predictions about the new year that is about to begin. A national newspaper devoted one of its last Sundays to analyzing 2024 as an “uncertain year”, whether in terms of geopolitics, Spanish politics, economics, technology, environment or culture.

Also a few days ago, The Economist pointed out the unknowns of 2024 in the political sphere, with more than 70 elections, including those for the European Parliament and the United States, but also those for countries the size of India, Russia or Mexico. . And in the local area of ​​Sabadell, there doesn't seem to be much suspicion. The major works being implemented, such as the South Gate, the Mirinals Pavilion or the North Garden, will follow, and a necessary and important investment in public space, in the streets, sidewalks and squares, will be announced. The pending issues – among others, the Northern Ring Road, the Nursing School or the transfer of the old Civil Guard barracks to the City Hall – are matters that mainly depend on other departments, the General Government, the UAB or the State Government. Some of the museum's announced projects will be confirmed.

Further uncertainties are expected at the national level, as we continue to have an extreme minority government, with no budgets in sight, and no push in key areas of administration (education, health or social services). We continue with an excess of gestures and few policies that are practical and useful to citizens. At the state level, the stability of the government seems very linked to the ongoing negotiations, within the coalition government itself and with all the political forces that made Sánchez's inauguration possible. Approval of the amnesty law will certainly come in the first half of the year, along with negotiation of the budget. Only the stupid and parochial opposition of the People's Party and Vox provide sufficient arguments to politically unite the parliamentary majority. Uncertainty on the horizon.

But it is the global sphere, with its wars and electoral unknowns, that may worry us most. The continuation of the war in Ukraine or the unbearable devastation of the war waged by Israel's ultra-nationalist government against Hamas and ricocheting back against all Palestinians in Gaza remains very present. The daily images of these wars are unbearable and require immediate action by international bodies to put an end to them. The role played by the United States is essential to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, but we are witnessing the worsening of internal problems, such as those that have emerged at many American universities. And all this with a presidential election, less than a year away, that could return Donald Trump to the head of the country.

The outlook for the European Union presents no less uncertainty. The parliamentary elections scheduled for June may give us a majority with large right-wing tendencies. Especially if the sector headed by Manfred Weber within the European People's Party ends up winning – against the more moderate sectors represented by the current President of the Commission – which will not hesitate to ally with the rising far-right across Europe. . The debates that took place in the European Parliament on Spain's amnesty law (when this was still possible) or during the term of the Spanish Presidency of the Union, were a small sample of where European policies could be determined later in the elections. Manfred Weber leads the European Union, with a push The far right and the populist far right.

Because, as the Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde pointed out, the main danger lies in the radicalization and transformation of traditional right-wing parties, moving from being conservative parties to radical, extreme and populist right-wing forces, as is already happening in 2016. Spain with PP Feijóo. We will continue to talk about that.