The war in Ukraine is a black swan for the Meloni government, a rift between the US and Europe: 'Tired citizens'

The crack can also be seen in Italy. After Washington, Slovakia, Poland. “It’s clear – he said yesterday Georgia Meloni meeting with SkyTg24 – that war It generates consequences that have a powerful impact on our society, and if we are not good at dealing with those consequences, public opinion will continue to creak.” They call it “exhaustion“, Doubts about military commitment in Ukraine. Meloni says he also spoke about the matter Tuesday afternoon in a video call with the US president Joe Biden He reached out to the leaders of the seven major world powers, from Canada to Japan via the United Kingdom, Germany and France. “I raised this problem – he explained – Inflation, energy prices, and migrations are all consequences of conflict Which, by influencing citizens, generates resistance or risks provoking public fatigue. “If we want to defend Ukraine vigorously, we must also pay attention to these consequences.”

there broke down This can be seen by comparing the words of the Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani: “We will continue to support the country for peace, which is a guarantee of freedom and independence for Ukraine.” And that of the Minister of Defense Guido Crosetto: “Tajani talks about the constant request for help. However, it is up to us to check what we can offer against what they need.” There is a crack in the nuances. In the crack it hides”black Swan“For the Meloni government. It’s called ‘Ukraine’ and this ‘rare and unexpected’ event is the only variable the Meloni government has to deal with. There are no governmental crises on the horizon, let alone technical governments. The problem will not be there.” Budget law (We don’t know where to find the ten billion), Immigration. The only variable that needs to be taken into consideration is the change in scenario regarding the war in Ukraine in the United States and Europe.
The scenario and variables have crystallized in the last ten days. in the meantime Slovakia He went to vote and the left-wing populist leader and supporter of Putin Robert Fico He won the elections thanks to two slogans: “Stop weapons in Kiev”, “Stop the migrants”. Two days ago, the US House of Representatives and Senate voted on a reserve budget capable of avoiding closure until mid-November. In that budget, the far-right Republicans made sure that the military aid package (six billion) for Kiev was not included.

For the first time in 19 months, Ukraine is absent from the US budget. Right-wing Republican groups associated with Trump card They are fueling the campaign against Kiev and are in favor of stopping the war. Yesterday, Trump senators were able to convince the GOP spokesman to resign through a motion of no confidence Kevin McCarthy Because it is “too lenient” with the Biden administration. It is the first time this has happened in American history. Capitol Hill is in chaos. Be careful for the next few days. On Sunday, October 8, the red thread, no matter how thin, that connects Washington to Bratislava, touches the ballot boxes in the lands of Hesse and Bavaria, Frankfurt and Munich, to be clear: 6 million people in the first and 13 in the second. Chancellor Schulz must gauge the growing consensus among the far right. October 15 is the turn Poland Former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council Donald Tusk has formed an alliance (“Civic Platform”) against the current majority, which is defined as “a right-wing nationalist government pitting Poles against Poles.” Current leader Morawiecki, a friend and ally of Giorgia Meloni, still leads by 4/5 points, and announced in September that he would no longer send weapons to Ukraine. Poland and PiS who were the first supporters of the Ukrainian people. The campaign for the European elections (June) will then begin. Meanwhile, the American will also take his steps. Here, in this context, with the war in Ukraine reaching a kind of stalemate, what is arriving from Europe and the United States undoubtedly constitutes “excellent news” for Vladimir Putin. Confirming his theory: With fragile Western democracies, all you have to do is resist a little and that’s it.

The impromptu G7 meeting on Tuesday afternoon was intended to send a clear message. Re-establishing usual certainties: “The meeting – as we read in the White House statement – was a coordination of our continued support for the Ukrainian people who are defending their freedom and independence against the brutal Russian invasion.” It is the eighth aid package. To which Minister Crosetto specifically said: “Well, let’s see.” The theme of “distress” and “fatigue” has already entered the election campaign. From every European country. For example, Salvini will exploit discontent and give space to his love for the Russians by replacing it with “the desire for peace.” A feeling that finds culture on the far right and the far left. It is precisely the majority that made Fico win in Slovakia. And Salvini is also willing to cajole in order to gain consensus. At the expense of dividing the majority and making room for the black swan.