China’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, for the fifth month in a row, although it has risen slightly with the PMI in August – according to official data – reaching 49.7, compared to 49.3 in July: but below 50 is negative. China – where Fitch’s gap on growth forecasts rose from 5.6% to 4.8% – remains a particular watch for markets, which also look at many macroeconomic data. Inflation is recorded in Italy and Europe: it is falling slightly in Italy, and remains stable in the Eurozone. In the United States, the focus is on unemployment benefits (today) and the employment report (tomorrow). European stocks moved little while waiting to understand how the new numbers might affect interest rate expectations. Also worth noting are the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB, in July, while Council member Isabel Schnabel notes that “fundamental pressures on prices remain stubbornly high, with internal factors now becoming the main driver of inflation.” Inflation in the eurozone.” Speaking at the Fed’s conference on inflation, the German banker said that “the outlook is still very uncertain.” A different situation for the Fed: the rise in US Treasuries these days shows how the market is betting on stopping to increases In the cost of money, especially after the latest data of a slowdown in GDP and the labor market: now the chances of raising interest rates by 25 basis points during the year – according to swaps – are less than 50%.
Contrasting lockdowns in Asia
Asian stocks closed in a tizzy after data showed that China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 in August from 51.5 the previous month. The latest data represents the weakest increase in the services sector since December 2022, just below market expectations of 51.1, as new orders (47.5 versus 48.1 in July) and foreign sales (47.9 versus 47.7) contracted for the fourth month in a row. Moreover, employment remained weak, falling for the fifth month in a row (46.8 vs. 46.6). However, the delivery time index recovered from a six-month low in July (52.0 vs. 51.4). Furthermore, concerns about China’s construction market suffering remain, with even Country Garden Group posting record losses.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closes its fourth consecutive session higher thanks to the positive performance of Wall Street. The Nikkei index gained 0.88% to 32,619.34 points, and the Topix index gained 0.8% to 2,332 points. Chinese stocks were in the red zone, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing 0.55% to 3,120 points and the Shenzhen Composite Index losing 0.61% to 10,418 points. Hong Kong was also damaged, -0.49% to 18,393 points, falling from the highest level in more than two weeks reached at the beginning of the week while collapsing by 8.1% month on month.
Banco Bpm closes merger and acquisition deal with Monte dei Paschi
Banco Bpm “is not interested in M&A transactions and reaffirms the stand-alone strategy, which has already been announced several times and which will be the basis for the industrial plan at the end of the year”. This was stated by a spokesman for the institute, denying rumors about the possibility of his marriage to the deputy.
European stock markets are stable awaiting macroeconomic data
In the first few exchanges, Piazza Affari confirmed the launch of parity, in line with all European stock exchanges, which are awaiting Eurozone inflation data on which the ECB’s choices can be based in view of the mid-September meeting. In fact, the Ftse Mib rose a few fractions of a point (+0.1%) with its moves into negative territory. The spread was subdued at 164 basis points with yields tilted lower in early government bond markets in the Old Continent. In Europe, where all stock exchanges are flat, it is worth noting that Ubs shares rose 5% in Zurich after record profits in the second quarter. In Milan, among the major stocks, Saipem sold 4% after completing a $500m bond offering, while Cnh rose 1 percentage point.
Chinese markets close in the red
Chinese stock markets closed lower on Thursday, with the Shanghai index down 0.55% to 3,119.88 points. The Shenzhen index closed down 0.61% at 10,418.21 points.
Ubs, the highest title since 2008
Financial markets welcome the indicators released today by UBS: in the first trading on the Zurich Stock Exchange, the share of the big banks rose by 5.87%, in a market that generally shows a partial rise, rising to a maximum of 15 years, that is, since 2008. The work of the institute was led by Sergio Ermoti tonic for several sessions: In the past 4 weeks and up to yesterday’s close, it has already made gains of 18%. Last week, the price reached 22 francs for the first time in eight years. It should be noted that on March 20, the value instead reached this year’s low of CHF14.38. However, the absolute maximum of 75.54 francs reached in 2007, before the financial crisis, seems out of reach.
France: GDP rose 0.5% in the second quarter
In France, GDP grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. This is what emerges from the INSEE Statistical Institute’s final figure. The total disposable income of households remained practically stable in the second quarter of 2023: +0.1% after -0.6% in the first quarter of 2023. The household savings rate increased this quarter to 18.8% of income, after 18.2% in the previous quarter.
Germany, another sign of recession: bad retail sales
German retail sales confirm the sluggishness of the German economy. The Destatis Institute recorded -0.8% on a monthly basis in July, in line with the previous poll, versus the 0.3% forecast of analysts, while on an annual basis the figure shows a decline to -2.2%, down from -1.6% of the previous estimate and -1% that Assumed by the market.
Tokyo Close (+0.9%)
The Tokyo Stock Exchange accelerated towards the end of the session and ended trading higher for the fourth day in a row, with investors anticipating a temporary pause in monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and waiting for more indicators from the US labor market. The Nikkei index rose 0.88% to 32,619.34 points, adding 285 points. On the currency front, the yen rose slightly against the dollar to 145.90 and stabilized against the euro at 159.20.
Xi could miss the G20
Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to miss the G20 leaders’ summit in New Delhi, India, from September 9-10. This is what Reuters reported on its website, according to which Premier Li Qiang can represent China. The summit could have been an occasion for a meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden, as part of efforts to stabilize relations that have fallen to their lowest level in recent decades due to a series of trade and geopolitical tensions. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will be represented by Foreign Minister Lavrov, will not attend the event.
UBS will fully merge Credit Suisse, and the brand will disappear
Banking giant UBS has opted for a “full merger” of Swiss rival Credit Suisse, whose brand will disappear. “Full integration will leverage the strengths that make UBS the leading bank in Switzerland,” UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said in a statement, while remaining competitive in the Swiss market.
Baidu launches its artificial intelligence
Baidu, the Mandarin-language Google, has launched ERNIE Bot, its answer to ChatGPT, and made it available to the public, marking a step forward for China’s tech sector as it aims to tap into the potential of artificial intelligence. ERNIE Bot, which had a limited unveiling in March, is the first AI home app to be fully available in China, but not abroad. “We are pleased to be able to share that ERNIE Bot is now fully ready for the public as of August 31,” Baidu said in a statement.
“Infuriatingly humble social media buff. Twitter advocate. Writer. Internet nerd.”
