Sino-US relations will get worse after the midterm elections: Here’s why | Federico Rambini

Here I will explain why The Republicans’ return to Congress seems almost certain; Because it does not predict Nothing good for the basic relationship of our time, that between the United States and China.

Within a week, we Americans will vote to renew the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, 36 governors of countless states, as well as countless mayors and attorneys general. As usual, there are also quite a few local referendums scheduled to coincide with this mid-term legislation, so we have ballot papers as long as we have a tablecloth in front of us.

A week after the poll – which has already been cleared by tens of millions of voters, using early voting or by correspondence – Bad atmosphere for the president and his party.

Republicans continue to rise in recent polls, Democrats continue to decline. poll rate (D) The oath is sure to regain a majority in the House of Representatives and may even overstep the extreme in the Senate.

The delusion has disappeared for the Democrats

they disappeared illusion for Democrats.

The first is called January 6i.e. the hope that the Parliamentary Inquiry into the Capitol Assault in 2021 would have moved voters into the camp of those contemplating it. Donald Trump is a coup leaderDanger to democracy. It does not work. This parliamentary inquiry only convinced the Democrats, who didn’t need it.

Another delusion is called miscarriage. At one point in the election campaign, in the spring, the Supreme Court’s ruling repealing the constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy seemed to jump to the top of voters’ priorities, especially electricity. Democrats had hoped that the strong participation of left-wing women would change the dynamics of this midterm election. But as the months passed, public interest in abortion waned, according to opinion polls.

The price Biden pays to ally with the left of the party

Analyzes about vote shifts after November 8 should be done, and now it seems likely Biden pays two prices for his alliance with the left wing of the Democratic Party.

first price ongeneral system. Across America, there is an increase in crime, including murders. Many, even among racial minorities such as African Americans and Latinos, associate this insecurity with the radical anti-racism (Black Lives Matter) campaigns that delegitimizing the police. Police everywhere are declining after waves of resignations: the job of an agent is already dangerous and needless enough, and their practice becomes unbearable when surrounded by mistrust or indiscriminately accused of racism. In addition, several left-wing mayors have cut off funds for the police.

The second price, Biden pays oninflation. The Republicans were able to get hold of this account by: Gasoline is expensive because this president succumbed to pressure from the most extreme environmentalists, has impeded in every way the extraction and production of the fossil energies of which America is so rich. The accusation is partially exaggerated, but it is not completely unfounded. looks convincingSo the high cost of living caused by the energy shock is borne by the president’s party.

Consequences for the relationship with China

What will the second two years of Biden’s presidency hold for us if this president, in addition to the Supreme Court, also blasphemes against Congress? I surely risk: The only goal that undoubtedly enjoys a bipartisan consensus is to stop China.

On many other matters, Democrats and Republicans have different and even irreconcilable views. There is a real convergence on the Chinese threat.

So much so that between Donald Trump and Joe Biden there was a remarkable continuity of policy on China. The first defines duties, and the second prefers not to remove them.

The first test was conducted against Huawei for the effectiveness of the ban on the supply of advanced technologies made in the United States; Biden decided to improve and enhance the technology blocking tool by extending its application to many other Chinese companies.

put it in Probably He can hope that the republican retaliation will open a glimmer of his.And the Xi Jinping He has no reason to be under any illusions.

The old big party is no longer Henry Kissinger’s realist party. Today, it takes a very pessimistic view of China. Within the Republican Party there are politicians, such as Marco Rubio who is running for re-election as a senator from Florida, who advocate a more hawkish approach to relations with Beijing.