As we are about to begin the so-called political season, some indicators allow us to guess the big results of this season. In Catalonia, there is no doubt that after the first months of the island government, the two planned congresses, Junts in October, and ERC in November, will be the main parties in the fall, and not without reason the roadmap of both parties has been launched. The Junts team is expected to be calmer than the ERC team – if there are no unforeseen difficulties – and, as expected, the role that Carles Puigdemont wants to play in the coming times will be clarified. At this point, two questions are fundamental. The first, to know if Puigdemont will be party president again, outside the scope of the power he has held without being so. The second, if he plays an active role as opposition leader, or, as could be the case, he will delegate this function to Albert Batet and will dedicate himself to reactivating and leading the independence movement throughout the territory, alien to the parliament. Life and elbow together with the civic actors. Party president and movement leader, a double condition that, if tangible, has strong political significance. Ultimately, the eventual return of the president into exile will change the paradigm in Catalonia. In any case, a great deal of turmoil is not expected at a congress where no one will discuss his leadership role. And, apart from Puigdemont, this is also expected to be the congress where the ideological contours, which are often very unclear, will be refined.
On the other hand, at the ERC Congress, the turmoil could reach the category of a hurricane if the decibels of the open war between Junckerism and anti-Junckerism, which has been loud for months but has been declared publicly since July, do not decrease. In both cases, the Republicans face a Congress of enormous importance, which will not only have to choose a new leadership, but will also have to decide how to refloat a ship that has been sinking for three elections. Along the way, it will have to ratify or deny the path that the leadership has recently set, openly in favor of alliances with the Spanish left, and away from the pro-independence units. It will therefore be the Congress where the big question will be answered: a national question or an ideological question; independence or federalism; closer to the Commons or Junts… In any case, equal distance is impossible. Although it seems likely that in the coming months the current strategy will win and the ERC will remain in positions far from independence – neither the Junqueras sector nor the Rovira sector differs from this position – the debate on ignition and division cannot be ruled out. The script is evolving. The bad results of the socialist bear hug may weigh in the balance.
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If the panorama is moved in Catalonia, the return to political school in Spain will be an earthquake, where justice causes all the tectonic shocks. On the one hand, there will be a conflict between the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court after the amnesty law that, however late, should be resolved in the coming months. The battle of Conde Pompidou and Marchena will undoubtedly move the entire table and determine the political chips in Catalonia. On the other hand, the siege against Pedro Sánchez will increase on two fronts, that of his wife Begoña, and the Koldo-Albalos case, with some repercussions towards Illa, according to Madrid’s demands. And as is clear, the entire opposition, both political and media, will exploit the judicial offensive to blow up the government. At this stage, it is impossible to know whether all these cases before the courts can reach the point of an indictment against Sánchez – who is the target of the manhunt – or whether these balloons that have been inflated for months will finally burst. In any case, it is clear that the PP, Vox, the judges, Aznar and the rest of the usual suspects will not get away easily. If all this eventually comes to an impeachment, the discussion of Sanchez’s petition in Congress will become a carnival. What will you two do together? What will GDP do? What…? And by the time it’s over, nothing suggests a quiet autumn. The entire offensive against Sanchez will be focused on the coming months, and only two things can happen: he emerges alive, stronger; or he doesn’t.
Puigdemont and Sanchez: These will be the heroes and these will be the doubters.
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