US JP Morgan: “The Russian economy is holding up better than expected. Towards a soft recession with a 3.5% drop in GDP”

The recession in Russia this year may be much weaker than most estimates suggest. drop in GDP more than 9% But according to new forecasts contained in a note to clients of the largest US bank, the decline could stop at 3.5%. Economic indicators were presented, in May, The data is much better than expectedwe read in the study, while after the initial declines both Manufacturing sector consumption It appears to be stabilizing. Moreover, the job market is resilient at the moment. In fact, the unemployment rate fell slightly in May from 4 to 3.9%. An astonishing scenario if we take into account the severity of Western sanctions and the immigration of foreign companies.

What the country supports is Huge revenue from exporting raw materials Energy, about a billion euros a day. The quantities of oil and gas sold declined but not significantly while the simultaneous rise in prices, favored by the war in Ukraine itself, boosted Moscow’s revenues. In the first 100 days of the war alone, Russia earned over €90 billion from oil, gas, and coal exports. Income, and increasingly large trade surpluses, also made it possible Support the ruble exchange rate And stop inflation. After the collapse that followed the invasion, the ruble gradually recovered to become the most growing currency since the beginning of the year. excessive impulsivenessalarming the Russian Central Bank, which intervened to slow the rally which, if it exceeds certain levels, ends up slowing the economy and exports.

“Looking beyond the political tensions, the Russian economy offers positive surprises,” JPMorgan wrote. “Right now, Russia is going through a much milder recession than was assumed when the invasion began.” So the bank has It raised its forecast for Russian GDP to -3.5% from -5% previously. However, analysts point out that it is exaggerated Soon to assess the full impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy, which is likely to hinder growth for years. Moreover, the embargo imposed by the United States, Britain and the European Union on energy goods will come into force gradually and can gradually reduce the incoming streams The euro and the dollar.