(Paris) More than 20,000 cases daily, ten times more than a month ago: COVID-19 contaminants are erupting in France due to delta variation. It remains to be seen to what extent this will affect hospitalization and resuscitation.
“The impact of the health care system is the real question, the only question,” Jean-Franசois Delphraizi, chairman of the government-led Science Council, promised during a Senate Senate examine of the bill on Thursday. Health passport.
Considered to be 60% more contagious than its predecessor alpha variant, the delta variant is currently causing a burst of lawsuits, so the government is now talking about a fourth wave.
In the last seven days, there have been an average of nearly 12,000 new daily cases (including 21,000 on Wednesdays) and less than 2,000 cases by the end of June.
“There has been an increase of about 150% in the circulation of the virus in a week: we have never experienced this,” Health Minister Oliver Warren warned Tuesday, since the outbreak began.
At present, hospital admissions for COVID-19 are still declining (less than 7,000, including less than 900 in intensive care). This makes sense because there is a delay between diagnosing a case and admitting the patient to the hospital.
But officials fear it could change soon.
“The decline has slowed and we can see an increase in the number of patients in shifts in five regions – especially those in the south,” he said. Veeran told the senators on Thursday.
“We’re done with the descent and we’re on the climb […] I do not know how to answer that question, “he added.
In the past seven days, 1,550 COVID-19 patients have been hospitalized, of which nearly 300 are in emergency services (two weeks ago against 750 and 150, respectively).
However, starting with the historic prison term of March 2020, it is to prevent overcrowding of the hospital and envelopes that control measures have been imposed during other waves.
One factor changed the game: the vaccine. This reduces the risk of infection, even with delta variability, and also reduces the risk of developing a severe form of the disease.
Vaccines therefore guarantee that a certain number of contaminants will not be admitted to the hospital. But scientists point out that it is not enough because the delta is so contagious.
“Imagine that there are five times fewer hospitals (contaminated compared to previous variants, the editor’s note): with this infectious variant, nothing excludes the presence of five times more infections than previous viruses. In any case, we may have an equal wave,” Oliver Warren feared.
Officials fear it will happen again in the summer of 2020: contaminants that start in young people (which happens) then spread to the elderly and fragile, resulting in hospitalization, especially in the unknown.
Fear at the end of August
So France has been monitoring what is happening in the countries where the delta is a few weeks ahead.
“In the UK, we are seeing an increase in the number of hospitals that do not admit patients to intensive care because vaccines protect them from developing severe forms,” Professor Delphries pointed out.
According to him, the United Kingdom is expected to “reach 1,500 hospitals a day from the middle of next week.”
However, the British (and especially the elderly) are vaccinated more than the French: more than two-thirds of adults are completely vaccinated in the United Kingdom, and less than half in France.
So, the screw-up announced on July 12 by Emmanuel Macron to extend the health passport.
In addition, “in Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands, at this time, the burden of care will not increase greatly, even if it does increase,” he said. Says the groom.
Taking all of these parameters into account, Professor Delphrizi is making an arrest in French hospitals in the second half of August for “a complex, highly complex situation”.
The minister warned that summer time would be doubly complicated: “It is a very difficult month to organize hospitals, which adds to the problem”.